The surprise vote in favor of an exit from the European Union has sent markets around the world into a state of turmoil and the pound has dropped to a low not seen in over 30 years. The process of the UK divorcing itself from the major European body has not even begun yet and there are already murmurs of regret by 1.6 million Britons who have now signed a petition on Parliament’s website requesting a second referendum.
A new vote is unlikely to happen and while it is true that the referendum is non-binding and the U.K.’s next prime minister is under no legal obligation to act on the results, this option has been ruled out by the EU’s other leaders. It would be extremely difficult to ignore the views of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave and so a Brexit is definitely on its way.
Trigger Lisbon Treaty
The process of separation is not an immediate one, however. The first step is for the U.K. to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, putting in place a two-year timeline for formal talks. Prime Minister David Cameron has said that it was the responsibility of his successor to trigger the treaty but a new leader won’t be selected for at least another three months. Boris Johnson, the favorite to take over, indicated Friday that there is no rush to formally start negotiations and the longer the wait, the more the negotiating power remains with Britain. Once the treaty is triggered the advantage switches back to the other 27 countries so the timing of Article 50 is quite crucial. It seems likely therefore, that the U.K. won’t be leaving before the end of 2018 at the earliest.
The triggering of the negotiations does not have to be done in any formal manner and can either be a letter to the president of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. One EU official even pointed out that it “…doesn't even have to be written. He can just say it."
European leaders prefer to see Cameron himself start the process in the coming days or weeks and many pro-Brexit Britons would like the government to negotiate a comprehensive new relationship with the EU that would ensure access to markets without having to submit to EU rules or open migration even before tying itself into the two-year timetable that would be fixed for talks when Article 50 is triggered.
EU officials and leaders are concerned that a prolonged wait before negotiations begin with London would set off a domino effect of other states wishing to exit the multinational organization. There is no legal way, however, to force Britain to start the process besides placing hefty political pressure on Cameron to honor his pledge to do so. The pressure has already begun, with the European Central Bank warning that Britain's financial industry, which employs 2.2 million people, would lose the right to serve clients in the EU unless the country signed up to its single market sooner rather than later.
Not all EU members agree that forcing the process is the way to go. Almost alone in continental Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought on Saturday to temper pressure from Paris, Brussels and her own government to force Britain into negotiating a quick divorce from the EU. She clearly indicated that she would not press Cameron after he indicated Britain would not seek formal exit negotiations until October at least.
"The negotiations must take place in a businesslike, good climate," Merkel said. "Britain will remain a close partner, with which we are linked economically."