These fundamental articles are in danger of becoming political observations. However, it is hard to overestimate the importance that a UK step to actually leave the EU would have, both in terms of the self-harm to the UK’s economy, but also to the EU itself and to economies further afield. But, as they say, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings…
Firstly, it must be remembered that the UK referendum was not binding on the government, but rather advisory. Secondly, we are led to believe that a vast majority of MPs favoured remaining in the EU and by no means lastly, the vote was only a narrow victory of roughly 52 to 48% of those who bothered to vote. It has been suggested that only 37% of the voting population that could have cast a ballot supported the leave position (those that didn’t vote were obviously far too busy; watching paint dry probably). Also, a proportion of those who voted to leave did so as a protest against the Conservative government; others were swayed by promises to control migration (from the EU) or that the NHS would get £350 million a week more if the nation left. The “promises” of the Leave group have been shown to be without foundation whilst some of the dire economic warnings of Remain have, as yet, failed to materialise – in any event, a very sizeable proportion of the UK electorate want to stay within the EU and the political and economic position of the UK in a Brexit world remains very unclear even to those most vociferous in campaigning for it.
The “In/Out” referendum was a gambit by the Tory party establishment to win the 2015 election (which they did) and, at a stroke, silence both its own Eurosceptic wing and UKIP. Unfortunately, that’s where things went awry. However, in the aftermath of the 2015 General Election, Labour leader Ed Milliband, resigned and an old-guard, left wing socialist, Jeremy Corbyn, was elected to replace him.
Corbyn was widely criticised for not doing more to persuade labour voters to vote for Remain during the campaign and his own position on the EU was seen as being lukewarm at best. Whilst Mr Corbyn is wildly popular with parts of the party he leads, he has lost the support of 80% of his MPs and is widely regarded as unelectable. This has triggered a two-way leadership contest between Corbyn and Owen Smith, who is also on the left wing of his party, but noticeably more moderate than the current leader.
In campaigning for the leadership, Mr Smith has just pledged to attempt to force the government to either hold a general election or to have a parliamentary vote on the terms of any putative Brexit deal that it would hope to have in place when the two year disentanglement process between the EU and the UK ends, prior to the government invoking Article 50. Given that the government has an absolute majority of just 17, it is entirely possible that with the support of just a few pro-European Tories, any government plan to vote through invoking Article 50 could fail. It ought to be the case, given what’s at stake, that the government would wish to seek some national mandate for the position it adopts re Brexit prior to lighting the blue touch paper. This is particularly so since access to the single market, seen by many as imperative, would almost certainly require that the UK continues to respect the right of EU citizens to live and work in the UK and the nation would be giving up a lot to achieve – frankly – nothing. The outcome of the ballot for the Labour leadership will be delivered at the end of September. The fat lady hasn’t even started her vocal exercises yet.