The European nation that finds itself in the greatest danger from an imminent loss of access to the EU’s single market is not the UK, but Switzerland. In 2014, the Swiss narrowly voted in a referendum (which is binding on the government) to restrict immigration from the EU. This position, whilst democratic, is totally at odds with the requirements of the EU and it seems unavoidable that the Swiss will lose market access in March 2017 when they must implement the decision. The margin of the vote was tiny 50.3% to 49.7%, but it will have severe repercussions on the Swiss economy if the government can’t pull a rabbit out of the hat before then.
Unsurprisingly (Mrs May take note), the EU has been implacable in its unwillingness to compromise on freedom of movement which is a core value of the organisation. The Swiss nation’s relationship with the EU is built on 130 (Mrs May…) separate bilateral agreements covering its trading relationship with the bloc. Due to a so-called “guillotine clause”, all of these accords would lapse if one fails.
The Swiss have proposed a fudge (which will not be acceptable to the EU) suggesting that rather than capping migrant numbers, priority for employment should be given to Swiss citizens (or those already on Swiss territory); if qualified people can’t be found then the employer could turn to the EU worker pool. This is to fail to understand the concept of freedom of movement and would be seen from outside as an act of national protectionism rather than an attempt to square the circle.
A former Swiss president, Micheline Calmy-Rey, is suggesting that the UK and Switzerland should act together to push for a mechanism to access the single market whilst minimising (to some extent) free movement:
"Switzerland and Britain have in common the same question - that means the question of freedom of movement and to find a solution in order to respond to our population to limit migration. The question is what political price Great Britain and Switzerland are willing to pay to limit migration. Do they have to pay with access to the big market - totally, partially or not at all? And it all depends on the negotiations you will have and we will have with the European Union. I think not only Great Britain and Switzerland have this problem, I think other member states inside the European Union have this problem of freedom of movement."
The only way that such a compromise could be offered to either nation would be if the EU, as a whole, decided to place some restrictions on freedom of movement whilst respecting the principal. This could happen, but not with a gun placed against the collective head of the EU. In many of the 28 states there are some concerns about unrestricted EU migration which right wing parties whip up as and when it suits them. There are obvious solutions to the problem which could be adopted, but, as yet, the mood for reform is not strong enough.