Mrs May triggered notification of the UK’s intention to leave the EU, under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, on 29th March and has proclaimed that the UK is on an irreversible course out of the EU. Only she, she argues, can get the right deal from the EU to protect EU-UK trade. By definition (and at the insistence of the EU27) no deal can be as good as the one that the UK currently enjoys as a member of the EU. At the moment, the UK has a say in shaping EU policy, lobbying for regional development funding, input into technical standards for trade, environmental protection and so on and has a veto on any EU legislation (of significance) that it does not approve of. All this falls away when the UK leaves the bloc. It was therefore very much in her interests to insist that this course is now unalterable and it was against this assurance that she called a general election.
The government has steadfastly refused to grant parliament a meaningful vote on the final EU-UK deal other than take it or leave it. Likewise, it has refused to contemplate a second referendum on the deal, arguing that “the people” have spoken; despite the Leave arguments that it was all about assuring the sovereignty of the British parliament and “taking back control” by the electorate, of course.
However, it was always likely that if either the UK government fell, or the Conservative Party elected a new leader (and hence PM) who was Eurocentric that the EU would not (or indeed could not) insist that the notice to leave the EU was irrevocable. The political logic of this situation was always crystal clear, but steadfastly denied by the PM.
Yesterday, a meeting was held between the new head of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, and Mrs May. In an interview after the meeting, Mr Tajani remarked: “If the UK, after the election, wants to withdraw , then the procedure is very clear. If the UK wanted to stay, everybody would be in favour. I would be very happy.”
Therefore, whether politicians in the UK like it or not, the general election will also be a de facto second referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. This may explain why both Sterling and the Euro have rallied since the election was called.