Nobody knows what will happen when/if the UK leaves the EU. Nobody knows what rights and obligations will survive for expatriates living in the UK or Brits living (particularly in retirement) abroad. Nobody has any real idea what the “ambitious”, “bespoke” “win-win” deal that Theresa May (if she is still PM) hopes to negotiate with the EU and how any “deal” is possible given her refusal to retain the customs union, the supremacy of the European Court of Justice (notably for trade disputes), or allow the continued freedom of movement of EU citizens once the UK is no longer an EU state. Given that any movement on these “red lines” would lead to her metaphorical lynching by the Eurosceptic Tory right and any remaining Ukip supporters, it is hard to see what room she has for manoeuvre which might make the EU inclined to offer any deal approaching the current arrangements that the UK has as an EU member state. Brexit is a political poison chalice.
The latest piece of gloom and doom is the result of the product of a think-tank on the potential cost of retired UK expats returning from sunnier climbs to the UK post Brexit and relying on the NHS for their healthcare needs as the current reciprocal arrangements between EU states for the care of their nationals comes to an end upon Brexit. The Nuffield Trust, engaging their crystal ball, estimates that were the tens of thousands of expat retirees to return to the UK post Brexit that the cost for their care would double to £1 billion (the UK currently contributes £500 million via the EU reciprocal health care deal).
The strong lead that the Conservative government had when the election was called has been whittled away with polls today suggesting that next week’s vote could result in a hung parliament. It has made some question the sincerity of the government in campaigning from a fresh mandate which was not needed (from a sovereign perspective) for the Brexit negotiations.