There had been considerable speculation that an increase in the UK CPI inflation level for August to 2.9% might be enough to cause the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England to increase interest rates in a bid to curb it, but in the end the MPC decided by a vote of 7 to 2 to leave it unchanged. The rate remains at an historic low value of 0.25% where it has been since August of last year, following a cut of 0.25% from the 0.5% level it had sat at since March 2009. The reduction in rates last year was accompanied with an increase in QE measures and both moves were designed to shore up the UK economy in the aftermath of the unexpected referendum decision to leave the EU.
The Pound has not come off recent highs against the US Dollar following the decision mainly because of the language surrounding the “no change” decision. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said: "The majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee, myself included, see that that balancing act is beginning to shift, and that in order to... return inflation to that 2% target in a sustainable manner, there may need to be some adjustment of interest rates in the coming months. Now, we'll take that decision based on the data. But yes, that possibility has definitely increased."
The Bullish message on the direction of UK interest rates was enough to push the Pound up by 1% against the Dollar to $1.3363. The MPC indicated that it was preparing to withdraw some of its QE stimulus measures in the coming months. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve is said to be preparing to sell off some of the assets that it purchased during its own QE experiment.
So, a rise in UK interest rates (probably by 0.25%) is on the cards; the game will now focus on just when this move will take place. Some analysts are suggesting that it may happen as early as the November BoE meeting whilst others point to the fact that rates were not predicted to rise until 2020, so a longer event horizon is indicated. Probably, the development of the UK inflation figure will be the key factor. If inflation again rises faster than predicted (as was the case in August) then an early increase is more likely; a slowing in inflationary pressure will probably kick it into the long grass of 2018.