The German people will go to the polls in a general election on Sunday 24th September. In recent years, people have had their trust in opinion polls severely damaged with significant electoral outcomes coming against all expectations, but, absent a good crystal ball, they remain the best predictive tool available.
The cause of nationalism in Europe has suffered a setback in the aftermath of the UK’s Brexit vote with voters in Austria, the Netherlands and France granting less support to nationalist causes than predicted. This may be a valuable side effect of Brexit as European voters have been able to witness the chaos that ensues when a nation tries to turn its back on European harmonisation and the single market.
Angela Merkel has been Chancellor of Germany since 2005, seeing the nation through the turmoil of the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone Sovereign debt crisis; events which precipitated many changes of government within Europe and around the world generally. Merkel has led the conservative CDU since 2000 and is credited with modernising the party which is regarded as a centrist right party. She is standing for a further term in office and the polls are predicting that she will be re-elected on Sunday.
Whilst the wave of European right-wing populism may have peaked, it still remains a force. In Germany, AFD (Alternative fϋr Deutschland) is expected to gain sufficient support nationally to take seats in the Reichstag for the first time, potentially establishing itself as the joint third largest party in Germany in terms of seats.
If the current opinion polling is accurate (big “if”), the CDU would claim 39% of seats in parliament with the SPD holding 23% and AFD, Linke and FDP on 10% each with the Greens gaining 8%.