The UK Prime Minister is to give what is being billed as a major speech on her vision of the EU-UK relationship going forward today in the Italian city of Florence. The fact that the speech is not being attended by the major partners in the EU Brexit discussion has fuelled dismay in the UK that Mrs May and senior colleagues should be swanning off to Italy to give the speech rather than have it delivered in parliament, a deprived UK city that is part of the Brexit hard core or even before the EU parliament where she recently declined to address a full session of parliament.
The talk is supposed to break the EU deadlock and it is understood that the UK will offer to pay up to £20 billion to fund a two-year transition period which will be a de facto extension of its EU membership. Plainly, such an arrangement is in UK interests, but it remains to be seen how such a demand will be received in Europe. Furthermore, the Article 50 notification process sets a two-year time limit for resolving separation issues between the EU and the leaving state and this can only be extended with the unanimous approval of all EU states – the transition period would be an extension of the UK’s membership of the EU by any other name and would require such a blessing.
Mrs May is said to be calling on the EU to be “imaginative” and will claim that it has a responsibility to make Brexit work. Sections of the talk have been pre-released to the press and note:
"If we can do that, then when this chapter of our European history is written, it will be remembered not for the differences we faced, but for the vision we showed; not for the challenges we endured but for the creativity we used to overcome them; not for a relationship that ended but a new partnership that began." Mrs May will argue that it is "in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed… so I believe we share a profound sense of responsibility to make this change work smoothly and sensibly, not just for people today but for the next generation who will inherit the world we leave them".
Thorney issues such as the customs and border arrangements between the UK and its only land border with an EU state, the Republic of Ireland, the rights of EU and UK citizens living abroad, the financial settlement of outstanding liabilities are likely to be glossed over. The payment for the transitional arrangement is being presented as “open and generous”, but realists will point out that it is only slightly above what the UK would expect to pay for two years of membership of the club on existing terms. They would also note that without such a transitional period, the UK faces a “cliff edge” which would be disastrous for its economy.
The Italian sojourn was slated as being a major announcement that justified the delaying of the resumption of Brexit talks in Brussels by a few days. However, on the basis of the information leaked out so far, it will be far from that. It seems to be little more than a re-presentation of the UK’s wish list.
Hardliners in the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party have already stated their opposition to the UK paying any further contributions to the EU after March 2019. Normally, the opinion of these “voices in the wilderness” would be of no significance, but the May government does not command a majority in the house and requires the backing of all of its MPs and 10 DUP MPs to be able to pass any legislation (against a unified opposition which is not always a given).