Probably the most apposite quote about the entire Brexit process was made long ago by veteran Conservative MP and former Chancellor on how history would remember David Cameron: “Just as Tony Blair will be remembered in history as the man who took us into Iraq, David Cameron will be remembered as the man who accidentally took us out of Europe. It’s very sad.”
The quote captures the essence of the Brexit fiasco: it wasn’t supposed to be like this. It was only ever intended that the vote would silence the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party, pull the rug out from under UKIP’s feet and endorse the UK’s destiny within the EU. Oopps!
Any informed observer about the Brexit debacle knows that there will be no “sunny uplands” and that the nation’s great future as a global leader of “free trade” is just hollow rhetoric. It is a perfect recipe for uncertainty and economic turmoil. The referendum vote itself was advisory, meaning that the government was not bound to implement what it quickly framed as “the will of the people”, a position endorsed by jingoistic, right-wing tabloids. This meant that it became politically impossible for either the government or the official opposition to come out publicly against Brexit; at least for a while. As a consequence, Article 50 notice was voted through by parliament and a snap general election fought on the basis that both major parties would deliver Brexit – even if its shape was totally obscure. The major outcome of that election was that the ruling Conservatives lost their majority and did not get the endorsement of the public for the “vision” of Brexit that May was offering.
We now move on to what was known as the “great repeal bill”; an act of parliament designed to scoop up all existing EU law on the British statute and incorporate it (sans references to the EU or ECJ) into fresh UK law to be reformed at leisure. The powers that the government wishes to confer on itself via the use of secondary legislation and so-called Henry VIII laws are quite breath-taking. Of itself, the bill has caused great consternation in parliament and although on the “will of the people” wind, it has made it to the committee stage, it faces calls for over 300 amendments.
More rational politicians, opposed to a hard Brexit with its potential cliff-edge of “no deal” and consequently, no transitional period, are using the bill and cross-party groupings to insist that the bill includes key legislation requiring (if accepted and amongst other things), that an additional bill will be required to remove the UK from the EU following a meaningful vote in parliament; that a transitional deal must be agreed as part of the bill; and, finally, that a “no deal” outcome cannot be accepted.
It remains to be seen how many Conservative MPs will vote in support of such amendments, against the wishes of their leadership, and how many Brexit supporting Labour MPs will side with the government, but it seems inevitable that the repeal bill will not pass in its current form and that amendments will be attached by both Houses of Parliament as MPs flex their muscles.
Another critical factor is that a “no deal” Brexit would force the re-imposition of a hard border in Ireland; the DUP, upon whose support the government relies for its slender working majority, are absolutely opposed to this eventuality and could not support the government in any situation whereby it would happen.