The headline reads that May “Secures Breakthrough” in Brexit talks, achieving, at the last moment, an outline agreement to move to phase two of the discussions where the future UK/EU trade relationship can be thrashed out. The devil is in the detail.
The key sticking point that emerged this week was the question of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland which nobody wants. An agreement which would have seen “guarantees” that trade agreements would not be allowed to diverge on the island of Ireland were rejected by the DUP for fears that it could create an internal UK border to trade. The solution that appears to have been accepted is that any Brit born in Northern Ireland will have EU citizenship for life.
In addition: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” Which means that the UK’s ability to forge trade deals with the likes of the USA will be severely restricted and the UK will follow EU laws and regulations without any ability to shape them. This will not go down well with hard-line Brexit supporters.
For EU citizens living in the UK, their rights will be protected by the ECJ for (at least) eight years after the UK leaves. The UK has agreed to pay the “divorce settlement” which is estimated as £35 to £39 billion, but this may not include fees for de facto membership (sans voting rights) of the EU during the two-year transitional period.
The details will continue to emerge over the rest of Friday and in the run-up to next week’s European Council meeting where it needs formal ratification. However, it is likely to please nobody in the UK since the Brexit cultists will view it as a sell-out and the Remainer community will ask why the UK is paying so much to leave a body only to be bound by its rules in perpetuity without any say in developing them and no veto on any decisions and laws that the UK views to be against its national interests.
The breakthrough has received an enthusiastic welcome from representatives of British businesses and a more cautious one from politicians, such has been the pressure to see the talks move forward, but a dispassionate analysis would point to trouble ahead between the Brexit and Europhile wings of the governing Conservative party over a deal that simply cannot be all things to all people – not least because many Remain supporters in the rest of the UK wanted to retain EU citizenship and with it the right to freedom of movement.