The UK economy has not benefitted from the recent upturn in the global economy to the same extent as other highly developed economies as a result of Brexit uncertainty, according to the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney.
In an interview with the BBC’s economics editor, Kamal Ahmed, Mr Carney noted: "Most recently it has been the uncertainty around Brexit that has prevented what would otherwise have been a surge in investment in this economy akin to the big pick-ups in business investment we have seen in other economies. Since the start of 2016 up until now we have seen much less investment than would have expected. Unfortunately, that means in the short term that the speed limit is not increasing. Productivity is not increasing, which will limit the rate at which people's wages can pick up."
Carney pointed out that it would be the Bank’s role to adjust monetary policy to support the UK economy in the light of the Brexit deal which should begin to emerge by this autumn. He cautioned that rate rises were likely in the future, but remained cagey about the timing. Many analysts think that the Bank’s monetary policy committee will announce a 0.25% interest rate rise next month; Mr Carney’s remarks suggest this is not so clear cut.
"Prepare for a few interest rate rises over the next few years. I don't want to get too focused on the precise timing, it is more about the general path. The biggest set of economic decisions over the course of the next few years are going to be taken in the Brexit negotiations and whatever deal we end up with. And then we will adjust to the impact of those decisions in order to keep the economy on a stable path."
In the interview, the governor commented that there had been mixed economic signals in the UK economy that needed to be digested before a potential rate hike:
"We have had some mixed data. On the softer side some of the business surveys have come off. Retail sales have been a bit softer - we are all aware of the squeeze that is going on in the high street. We'll sit down calmly and look at it all in the round. I am sure there will be some differences of view but it is a view we will take in early May, conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year."
The Pound fell back from recent gains against other major currencies as traders factored in Carney’s remarks.