Political and economic analysts are focusing on little other than U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (known in lay terms as the Iran nuclear deal). The terms of JCPOA had required Iran to restrict its nuclear arms development in exchange for relaxing the economic sanctions against the country. President Trump contended that despite the deal, Iran was on the brink of developing destructive nuclear weapons, and that the financial support of Iran served only to support the terrorist regime.
Former U.S. President Barack Obama called President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA a “serious mistake” in a statement released Tuesday night in the United States. In his statement, Obama noted that:
“Walking away from the JCPOA turns our back on America's closest allies, and an agreement that our country's leading diplomats, scientists, and intelligence professionals negotiated. In a democracy, there will always be changes in policies and priorities from one Administration to the next. But the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America's credibility, and puts us at odds with the world's major powers.”
European leaders have expressed agreement with Obama, expressing their concerns about the state of international relations now that Trump has made his decision. The UK’s labour party, for example, has accused Trump of a "reckless, senseless and immoral act of diplomatic sabotage". The EU’s unified condemnation of Trump’s decision came despite the fact that Trump threatened to penalize any country that helped Iran avoid the sanctions.
Not surprisingly, Trump supporters have come out as vocally as his detractors. Among his key political supporters are the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Many of Trump’s constituents and some members of his advisory team also lauded his efforts, commending him on keeping yet another one of the campaign promises that had originally raised eyebrows. At the time that the JCPOA was passed, only 21 percent of Americans supported it, while 49 percent opposed it. In this sense, Trump’s decision not only satisfied his own ego and his protectionist policies, but reflected the will of his nation as well.
What Comes Next?
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA and to go against the request of some key diplomatic partners (namely, the UK, France and Germany), calls into question the previously cordial diplomatic relationship between the countries. For now, EU leaders remain committed to upholding the JCPOA, a move which may place a political strain on their relationships with Washington. If Trump reacts negatively to the EU’s commitment to the JCPOA, we may see more economic sanctions against Europe as well, which would further erode the diplomatic relations that have been long developed.
Another thing to consider is the repercussions on the Middle East. Clashes intensified between Israel and Syria on Tuesday night, after Israel attacked what it said were Iranian units moving in Syria. Trump’s detractors are concerned that tensions could continue to rise as Iran continues to feel threatened by the alliance between the U.S. and Israel. Supporters of Trump’s decisions, however, argue that once the sanctions are implemented against Iran, the Iranian government will have less money for feeding its military partners in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. In this sense, it’s possible that Trump’s decision could actually curb military activity in the Middle East.
Another potential outcome of Trump’s decision, extreme as it may be, could be Iran’s decision to recommence its nuclear development which could demand military strikes by the U.S. or its allies. Perhaps more likely is the possibility that Iran could find a way to renegotiate the deal with Trump and the EU. Though this possibility will take time and patience, it would certainly be the outcome that is the least damaging for Iran.
Though Trump’s decision has been hailed as both courageous and foolish, there is one sure thing; he’s put Iran in a spot in which it will have no choice but to decide between its military agenda and its economic needs. Whatever happens will have significant impacts on both the global economy and the state of international diplomacy.