One of the major advantages of being in the EU and its single market is that goods produced in one member state of the bloc can be sold in another as if they had been produced in that country. Goods and services move freely within the EU with a minimum of customs scrutiny since producers must comply with an agreed set of rules and standards which are the same across the whole EU. This is why the Chequers “agreement” sought to maintain the same rule book for standards related to goods and foodstuffs after Brexit. If this is agreed (internally) and accepted by the EU and its 26 remaining member states then, in theory at least, minimum customs inspections would be required between the EU and the UK on goods and foodstuffs travelling between the two. However, the Brexit ultras in government (and to a larger extent) on its back benches believe that such a scenario would mean that the UK hasn’t really left the EU as it must continue to abide by its rules (rules it would no longer be able to influence). Therefore, it is far from certain that such an accord would get the necessary domestic backing, even if acceptable to the EU.
In the event that the UK leaves the EU without any deal, the workload of customs inspectors in the UK would rise astronomically since, theoretically, all shipments to and from the UK and the EU would need customs clearance, inspection and the application of relevant tariffs.
The government is hopeful of securing a “good deal” (never specified, of course) which would obviate the need for extra customs activities, but in one of its “no deal” briefing documents suggested that exporters and importers may wish to turn to specialist customs brokerage firms (that currently handle paperwork needed for export and import to third party nations).
In an interview with the BBC, George Baker, the boss of one of the UK’s largest customs brokers estimated that a no deal Brexit would lead to a five-fold rise in their workload. He noted: “There are many businesses which hadn't considered they may need a customs broker. They may have thought the import and export declarations are just a simple thing they can do and don't have much idea about how complex the transactions would be. It takes between two to five years to train to be a customs broker."
The point was reiterated by Allie Renison, responsible for Europe and trade policy at the Institute of Directors: ”You have a whole different raft of paperwork you don't currently have to deal with if you're an exporter to Europe."
Of course, none of these scenarios was a focus of discussion during the referendum campaign, but then reality bites!