Time is running out for the UK to arrive at a deal with the EU before it crashes out of the EU at the end of March 2019. The mantra of British PM, Theresa May, is that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. This has always been an absurd soundbite. If the UK’s exit does happen then UK business which deals with the EU via export or import will move from the most frictionless, seamless trading environment to something more onerous on British industry (and, indeed, their continental counterparts). The extent of the additional red tape, delays and customs requirements will depend on exactly where on the spectrum between continued full membership and third-party status, trading on WTO rules, the UK finds itself come 30th March 2019.
Both sides continue to stress that they want to forge a close trading partnership post Brexit, but any deal must be ratified, on the European side, by the European Parliament, all 26 national parliaments and some regional assemblies. That might be easy, compared to getting the deal ratified by the British parliament where the ruling Conservative party is badly split over how close the UK and the EU should remain post Brexit. This notwithstanding the issue of the UK-Irish border and requirements for customs duties and inspections of goods, livestock and foodstuffs.
Maintaining the rhetoric, the UK government has published the first 24 of some 70 circulars advising on what they think the sectors involved should do to prepare for an “unlikely” (really?) no deal scenario.
Details from the first batch of papers suggest that UK citizens will have to pay more to use their credit cards in the EU post Brexit. It is possible that British citizens living in the EU may have problems accessing their UK bank accounts (potentially, they may also lose pension rights). They advise the pharmaceutical sector to stockpile medicines against the risk that Brexit disrupts supplies (they advise a six-week surplus). VAT would have to be applied to low-value parcels from the EU. Exporters of “organic” food produce will face additional problems and, horror of horrors, the graphic images on cigarette packages will need to be changed since the EU owns their copyright.
Obviously, there are many other aspects covered in the advice – with more to come, but it is very hard to spot any concrete upside to the Brexit gamble.
Opposition MPs are becoming increasingly vocal about the unacceptable risks of a disorderly Brexit. It remains quite likely that the EU Withdrawal Bill will fail to be passed, but then quite what happens is anybody’s guess.