Away from the frenetic brinkmanship of Brexit, the rest of the world carries on much as normal; today’s Brexit headline is that government has appointed a food supply minister – not the Brexit opportunity that its ordinary backers thought it might create.
In the USA, the Federal Reserve has announced its eighth increase in its interest rate since 2015. The hike was another 0.25% increment and takes the US interest rate band up to 2 to 2.25%. To put this figure in perspective, the long-term average US interest rate stands at 5.72% (1971-2018, range 0.25 (December 2008) to 20% (March 1980)). The driver for normalising rates is that it affords the Fed a tool that can be used either to choke off inflation (raising rates) or to stimulate a sluggish economy (rate cuts).
The move marks the end of what the Fed said was its accommodative monetary policy. It is likely that there will be a further rate rise this year. To date, there has been no firm indication of where the Fed wants interest rates to end at nor if there will be any acceleration in the frequency or magnitude of the rises.
The Federal Reserve is supposed to be free from political influence, but the President nominates the chairman. Mr Trump has indicated his displeasure with the policy of rate normalisation stating: "I'm worried about the fact that they seem to like raising rates. We could do other things with the money."
For its part, the Fed acknowledged that it is hearing a “rising chorus of concerns” over President Trump’s policy of imposing tariffs on certain imports. The measures have disrupted supply chains and caused retaliation against US exports in the economies of the nations affected. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell cautioned that a permanent move towards a “more protectionist world” would be detrimental to the US and global economies.
The Fed is expecting the US economy to grow by 3.1% for the year, inflation at or about the 2% mark and for unemployment to hold at 4%.