The EU is holding a leaders meeting in Salzburg, Austria on Thursday and Friday. Brexit is not the only topic on the agenda – the migrant/refugee crisis is top billing, but it is a significant subject. The British PM was given a few minutes to address her peers last night after a working dinner and will not be present when the EU27 work on their position on Friday.
In the UK there has been considerable concern about government warnings on the immediate consequences of a “no deal Brexit” (which they still insist is better than a “bad” deal). Inevitably, this fuels talk of a “People’s Vote” on the deal (or lack thereof) that Mrs May secures from Brussels with an option to remain a full EU member being on the ballot, should it happen. At the moment, neither major party is backing the proposal with the PM “ruling it out” (just as she ruled out calling a general election upon becoming PM…) and Labour saying it should remain on the table if no deal is arrived at.
We are told that 80% of the concerns brought up by the withdrawal agreement between the two parties have been agreed. Michel Barnier, the EU’s principal negotiator, has stated that an agreement can be reached in time, but that further work is urgently needed in key areas, most notably the question of the Irish border. It was reported that Barnier had softened his approach by stating that many goods which cross the border could be approved away from the border by technical means and pre-registrations. However, certain items such as sanitary checks for livestock would have to be done at the border
It is understood that the PM has rejected the EU position on easing the border issue, saying that it would result in different customs regimes in Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. She has stated that she will not accept a “border in the Irish Sea” suggesting that such a move could lead to the break-up of the UK. She told the meeting: “The idea that I should assent to the legal separation of the United Kingdom into two customs territories is not credible”. In an astounding piece of brinkmanship, May ruled out asking for an extension of the A50 notice period last night, insisting that the UK will leave the bloc on 29/3/19 even if a deal is not agreed. This means that unless the insoluble problem of the Irish border is miraculously resolved to everybody’s satisfaction by the middle of November when an emergency EU summit is to be held, the UK will crash out of the EU with no deal and no transition period.