Usually, any leader tries to give themselves as much wiggle room as possible in a tricky negotiation, particularly over anything controversial. Not so Mrs May. On the night of the EU Salzburg meeting, Mrs May ruled out asking the EU to extend the A50 notice period. On Thursday, after her speech to EU leaders over dinner where she read out her article given to various German newspapers had gone down like a lead balloon, the leaders made it clear that the Chequers plan, as pitched, was unacceptable. She then held her own press briefing in London where she was visibly angry, demanding that the UK be “respected” by the EU (obviously, she felt slighted) and reiterated that the failed Chequers proposal was the only viable deal and it was up to the EU to explain why it wasn’t on and make their own suggestions on solving the Irish border issue (she had “ruled out” the EU negotiators proposals for limited inspections of critical livestock and agricultural produce, claiming it put a border in the Irish Sea and risked the unity of the UK).
Mrs May has now ruled out holding a snap general election in the autumn (which is actually sensible) and again reiterated that she will not agree to a second referendum, despite the increasing support for a “People’s vote”. Given Mrs May’s red lines and all the things that she has ruled out (freedom of movement, a role for the ECJ, membership of the customs union and single market) it is hard to see how she hopes any deal can be struck. There is a school of thought that suggests this is just posturing for next week’s Conservative Party conference and that she will be more pragmatic if she survives it. I wouldn’t hold my breath, if I were you…
Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party has held its conference and has decided that if it cannot precipitate a general election (and it can’t), it would endorse a “People’s vote” if whatever deal Mrs May brings back is rejected by parliament – it has ruled out backing a “no deal” scenario. This would include an option to remain in the EU on the ballot. The problem is that the opposition doesn’t have the power to force the government to hold a new vote. Labour has set six tests which any deal must satisfy to gain their support and as one is that it must offer “the exact same” benefits as being in the EU, it is a foregone conclusion that Labour will not back any government deal.
Some people argue that if Mrs May’s proposal on the “meaningful vote” (read: take it or leave it) is defeated, it could be seen as a confidence issue and may trigger a general election. The UK doesn’t have the two months available to it to run a snap election before the negotiating clock runs down. In short, the UK is in a very big political mess. It is highly likely (but contentious) that the UK could rescind its A50 notice, but far from certain that the government would ever do so. At the moment, the UK seems to be in a high stakes poker game and the other players know that it is bluffing on a very weak hand.