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Markets React To US Inflation Fears

By Dr. Mike Campbell
Dr. Mike Campbell is a British scientist and freelance writer. Mike got his doctorate in Ghent, Belgium and has worked in Belgium, France, Monaco and Austria since leaving the UK. As a writer, he specialises in business, science, medicine and environmental subjects.

The US economy is at near full employment. This means that to attract good candidates, employers may need to offer better wages and conditions which will push up wage inflation (though in fairness, this has been said for ages now). Should this feed into the general economy, it will add to pressures on the Federal Reserve to make money more expensive by increasing interest rates (thereby choking off general inflation, according to classic economic reasoning).

The US Dollar is the de facto international trading currency, so anything which affects its value will have repercussions around the world. Anxiety over US inflationary pressure has caused stocks markets around the world to slip, partially because US 10-year bonds have hit their highest effective interest rate in 7 years. There is speculation that the (near) Bull run in asset prices that set in at the end of the Global Financial Crisis is coming to an end. This is being fuelled by the low earning to price ratio for tech stocks which would be adversely affected by a decline in the asset price whereas high bond returns would not. A switch to bonds would fuel a decline in the values of stocks, if there was sufficient momentum.

A high Dollar will cause pain in emerging markets where money was borrowed when the interest rate was extremely low, if the rate is variable, as US interest rates continue to normalise. The Dollar is enjoying strong performances against many currencies at the moment. Given Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell’s prediction that the US economy could expand for “quite some time”, the pressures on global markets will remain. Should yield on US bonds continue to strengthen, a rebalancing (lower) of equity prices is on the cards. Another factor is that crude oil prices (quoted in Dollars) have moved higher recently which could (pardon the pun) fuel inflationary pressure in the US making at least one further interest rate hike this year all but certain.

Dr. Mike Campbell
About Dr. Mike Campbell
Dr. Mike Campbell is a British scientist and freelance writer. Mike got his doctorate in Ghent, Belgium and has worked in Belgium, France, Monaco and Austria since leaving the UK. As a writer, he specialises in business, science, medicine and environmental subjects.
 

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