More than two years have passed since Theresa May declared that “Brexit means Brexit”. Very few people at the time, or since, knew just what this vacuous, opaque soundbite actually meant – very possibly, including the PM herself. All that is certain about Brexit is that unless the UK revokes A50 notice or the whole EU agrees to an extension of the process to allow for more talks (or a People’s Vote) and May reverses herself and asks for one then the UK ceases to be a member of the EU as of 30/3/19. Unless some fix is found for the Norther Ireland – Republic of Ireland border in the very near future, the UK risks crashing out of the EU with no deal and no transitional period on that date with all UK trade governed by WTO rules.
The government claims to be “confident” that a “good deal” will be struck and that negotiations are now “95% complete”, but since only those involved know what is involved, it is hard to see this objectively. Equally, the government has never expressed its views on what would constitute a “good deal” either.
A putative agreement may be emerging to the Irish border issue which would see the whole UK remain in the (or a!) customs union after the transition period if no overarching deal which would allow for an essentially borderless solution on the island of Ireland is found. The EU will insist that this must be open ended; hard Brexiters in government want the power to terminate it unilaterally. The Brexit extremists in the Tory Party, the “European Research Group” have yet to react to it publicly, but since it would almost certainly curtail the right of the UK to enter into trade deals with third party nations whilst it is in force, it seems unlikely they will be happy about it. It would seem that the position has managed to garner the tentative backing of the cabinet, for now, at least.
However, the opposition Labour Party has said it would neither back any deal that May can obtain nor would it agree to a temporary membership of the customs union (it wants to see the UK stay in both the single market and customs union). Even if May can persuade her party to back the proposal, in general, it would only require a few dissenters to sink it in parliament, if Labour sticks to its principles. Should that happen, or if May can’t even come close to getting the full backing of her party, it is very uncertain just what would happen next.