The Brexit negotiations have reached a critical stage. The current proposal to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland is that after the transitional period, the whole of the UK will remain in the EU’s customs union, but it will no longer have a veto or a formal say in shaping any of the EU legislation relating to the single market, but must abide by existing and new rules. In essence, it is a kind of stand-still arrangement with the current situation and, theoretically at least, could be the basis for frictionless trade not only between northern and southern Ireland, but across the bloc.
The idea is that the solution would be temporary, being replaced by the eventual free-trade agreement between the EU and the UK, but Brexiters in government (and the wider Tory party) claim that it would tie the UK to the EU in perpetuity, turning the UK into a “vassal state” and a “rule taker”. They claim, with some justification, that this is not what people voted for when deciding to leave the EU, but then the promises they made to secure that vote aren’t going to be honoured anyway. The Brexiters in cabinet and members of the Tory ERG are demanding that the relationship be temporary with the UK retaining the ability to decide to terminate it at a time of its choosing. Understandably, this is not acceptable to the EU and negotiations are largely deadlocked (so no change there really…).
May’s first challenge will be getting the EU to a deal that her cabinet might accept. Then, she has to get the deal to be backed by the wider Conservative party and finally, get parliamentary approval for the deal. This looks like an impossible task. Remainers in her party are unhappy with the deal since it is hugely worse than the current situation where the UK is a full member of the single market and customs union, shapes legislation alongside other member states and has a veto on critical legislation and enjoys many other benefits and the membership of a host of EU institutions. For them, the deal represents the worst of all worlds. The Labour party position is that any deal must pass their six tests one of which is that it delivers “the exact same benefits” as EU membership – as promised by then Brexit secretary, David Davis – plainly, it won’t. The DUP, which props up the government by giving it a majority, is unhappy with the solution which implies that Northern Ireland will remain in the customs union (and, de facto, single market) in perpetuity, generating a different trading relationship between it and the rest of the UK should a more lasting solution be found.
The government has conceded that a November EU summit at which the deal could be endorsed will not be possible, kicking the can down the road until mid-December should a deal be agreed. This would leave almost no time for a “meaningful vote” to be held in the UK parliament before the Christmas break and leaving a very tight legislative schedule to meet before Brexit day even if sweetness and light were to break out in Westminster.
At this stage, nobody knows exactly what would happen if either no deal is reached, or it is rejected by parliament. Very few people believe that the government is actually ready to crash out of the EU with no deal or transitional agreement on 30/3/19, but time is slipping away for any legislative solution to be found.