Many observers think that it was an act of pure indulgence for a group of 48 Tory MPs to trigger a vote of confidence in Theresa May with the Brexit process at a critical phase. In the event, the challenge came to nought since 200 MPs confirmed their “faith” in the leadership of the PM whilst 117 voted against her. Since this was a vote by politicians on a politician, the result means all things to all people.
May loyalists claim that the result is a ringing endorsement of her leadership – well we have entered into the season of goodwill to all people. Plainly, this is nonsense since more than a third of her MPs has no confidence in her. The best that can be said is that it could have been much worse and she is safe from a further such challenge for twelve months. The “victory” wasn’t achieved without cost. Mrs May has had to acknowledge that she will not lead the party into “the next election”. Being a politician, this must be put in inverted commas since, under the fixed parliaments act, the next scheduled election is in 2022, however, if a snap election was called, the party would be hard pressed to elect a new leader in time to present them to the nation as the Tory choice for PM – especially as such a leadership contest is likely to be bloody.
May’s detractors point to the size of the vote against her and have vainly opined that she should now resign. More seriously, estimates put the number of her colleagues prepared to vote against her withdrawal deal with the EU at 104. The 117 votes of no confidence in her leadership is significantly above this and does not auger well for its chances of getting through parliament when it is eventually called.
May has resumed her charm offensive across Europe, hoping to win support for a formulation of words which might defuse the issue of the Irish backstop, but even if she gets it, the legal advice from the Attorney General stands in black and white and spells out just what it might mean. For its part, the EU is adamant that there will be no renegotiation of the deal and that the backstop is a necessary requirement to avoid a hard border in Ireland and inevitable because of May’s own “red lines”.
Most observers think that a Labour “no confidence” motion will only be launched if (when) the withdrawal deal “meaningful vote” is defeated. The mathematics of parliament (and tribal loyalty) make it unlikely that the May government will fall at that stage.