The UK will leave the EU on 29/3/19 – in just 78 days – with no deal, unless Theresa May’s withdrawal deal is approved, or something else happens. The deal, as it stands, is fundamentally unacceptable to the DUP upon whom May’s government relies for a majority. On its own, this would put the chances of the bill passing in jeopardy since all of the opposition parties have (nearly!) unanimously stated that they will not approve it. There are a few Brexiteers in Labour ranks that will back the bill, however, but it is only a handful. Of more relevance to the bill’s prospects are the 80 or so Tory party “European Research Group” (ERG) who are opposed to it and upwards (perhaps!) of 20 remain-minded Tories who are also likely to vote against it.
Since the EU has made it clear that the deal has been finalised, the only changes possible are cosmetic changes and the generation of explanatory texts. Remainers oppose the deal because it does not come close to replicating the advantages of continued membership (notably, frictionless trade, but a host of other aspects too). Fundamentalist Brexiteers object because the deal means that the EU could theoretically veto the UK’s decision to leave the backstop agreement and no trade deals can be implemented whilst the transitional period is ongoing (and it is likely to be extended beyond December 2020 with little doubt). The DUP objects to it since it would create (in their minds) potential barriers to trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK since the North would need to remain closely aligned to the EU to avoid a border becoming established (for customs and live animal export inspections if nothing else) whilst the rest of the nation could diverge.
May’s only stick to threaten MPs with is that the choice before them is “her deal” or no deal. However, members of her cabinet have threatened to resign should “no deal” become official policy. The Treasury and all of the official agencies that comment on fiscal projections in the UK have said that a no deal Brexit would be the worst possible outcome for the nation’s economy.
The latest voice to chime in on the issue of no deal was the Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe who was visiting the UK yesterday. Whilst praising May’s efforts to get the deal and endorsing it as the best option, he said:
"It is the strong will of Japan to further develop this strong partnership with the UK, to invest more into your country and to enjoy further economic growth with the UK. That is why we truly hope that a no-deal Brexit will be avoided, and in fact that is the whole wish of the whole world. Japan is in total support of the draft withdrawal agreement worked out between the EU and Prime Minister May, which provides for a transition to ensure legal stability for businesses that have invested into this country."
No doubt Mrs May wishes he had not been so “clear” (the current in-word for all UK politicians) about the undesirability of no deal.
The House of commons is currently debating the EU withdrawal bill and a vote is expected on Tuesday (this time, honestly…). In a remarkable piece of British parliamentary theatre, the Speaker of the House, John Bercow, allowed a vote on an amendment to the House Business motion requiring that, should the vote be lost on Tuesday, the PM would be required to announce her plan B within 3 sitting days of the defeat. The amendment was carried in what has widely been seen as parliament asserting its sovereign rights.