Forex Fundamental Analysis

The last full trading week of 2011 saw all the world’s major markets make gains – except for the Nikkei which essentially stood still.

Today is practically the last working day of 2011 for most people as they prepare for end of year festivities. It seems an appropriate point for some nations to evaluate economic projections and revise performance.

It is the season of goodwill towards all men and I suppose that includes bankers. So perhaps one must be charitable when looking at the ECB’s end of year deal with banks since the intention is that a little of the economic Christmas magic should trickle down to the likes of you and me, eventually.

On Wednesday the European Central Bank released funds into the banking sector to the tune of 489 billion Euros. The markets had expected only 293 billion to be needed, and the higher need simply underlines that the situation in Europe is bigger than many people understand.

The last several months have been very difficult for a lot of traders. The markets are only concerned about sentiment at this point in time, and all things tend to move in tandem these days.

When Mario Draghi replaced Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on the first of November it was probably with feelings of dread and relief: relief on the part of Trichet that he was retiring from the post and dread on the part of Draghi at being plunged into the perfect storm of an on-going sovereign debt crisis, failing global demand and loss of market confidence.

India is the world’s most populace democracy. 1.2 billion people live in the Indian sub-continent making it one of the world’s largest potential markets. The GDP of India is something like $1.4 trillion, but when this is expressed on a per capita basis, the figure equates to just $3500.

Whilst gold is moving towards an annual increase for the 11th consecutive year, this week’s fall indicates it’s about to register its first quarterly decline in three years. If you're looking to trade gold, read this first.

All of the world’s major markets closed lower last week amid threats from the ratings agencies to downgrade Eurozone credit ratings.

The new Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, faces a crucial vote of confidence in the Italian parliament today.

The Tankan study is commissioned by the Bank of Japan on a quarterly basis. It takes the pulse of business sentiment expressing the outcome as the percentage of positive views minus the percentage of negative opinions.

After the Tuesday release of the Federal Reserve minutes the trading world is weighing the possibility of another round of quantitative easing in the United States. The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that he is concerned that the crisis in the European Union could cripple the 2 ½ year expansion the US has seen, and that the fragile recovery may need more help from the central bank.

The EU summit meeting last week was more about the future than shoring up the single currency in the short term.

The Euro has been the center of focus for most currency traders over the last few months. We have seen the currency fall over time, but it has been amazingly resilient in general as the markets will step in and buy as various bits of good news comes out, or just simple suggestions of the possibility of decent reforms in Europe.

On Friday, David Cameron confused himself with Winston Churchill and now Britain again stands alone against “fortress Europe”. Whilst Churchill’s leadership of wartime Britain in standing alone in resistance to Nazi-ruled Europe was truly heroic and inspiring, Cameron’s position seems more in keeping with King Canute than his Conservative predecessor.