Forex Fundamental Analysis

France was one of the first developed nations to emerge from recession following the global financial crisis. Helped by financial stimulus measures that the government of Nicolas Sarkozy put in place, France returned to growth in the second quarter of 2009. However, the French National Statistics office (INSEE) has been counting the cost and has announced that the French level of debt has risen to its highest level, 76% of GDP as a result of the measures.

The UK is estimated to have some 5 million small businesses many of whom will have felt the chill winds of the global recession. A major consequence of the loss of confidence, stemming from some disastrous and bizarre lending decisions from many major financial institutions that triggered the global crisis, was that many “solid” borrowers have found it very hard to secure business loans.

In the overnight session, the Nikkei fell by almost a percent amid concerns that Japan Airlines may be headed for bankruptcy. This follows a rather flat day on Wall Street as the DJIA closed down 1.67 points, to 10,545.41, marking its first loss in 7 sessions.

For the ninth consecutive period, figures for Japanese factory output have strengthened, from their disastrous position at the heart of the global economic storm. Japan is an exporting nation and demand from importing nations is improving; most notably in Asian markets.

Last week saw all of the major stock closing somewhat higher compared to the previous week’s closing figures. In Europe, the FTSE made almost 1% of its value, closing at 5372.4; the CAC made nearly 1.7% over the previous week’s close, one ending the abbreviated week’s trading at 3910.75; the Dax closed up by 2.4% at 5957.44.

Just yesterday, we were reporting that November housing data were the best figures for two years and that members of the US National Association of Realtors were feeling quietly confident. Well, as they say, that was yesterday.

The Dollar continues to strengthen as global economies show signs of bottoming after surviving the financial crisis that has gripped the markets for the last 2 years. The DXY closed yesterday's session at 78.25. The NZD yielded the most to the Greenback, giving up .82% while the CAD gained 0.45% as the Canadian economy continues to show signs of strength.

The world’s largest economy returned to growth in Q3 2009 after four successive quarters of recession. The initial growth estimate was a fairly robust 3.5%, but the figure had to be revised downwards to 2.8% as hard numbers began to emerge. The figure has been re-evaluated and now stands at 2.2%

Global Equity Markets advanced yesterday on lighter than usual economic data releases. In the U.S, the DJIA closed out its session at 10,414.14 picking up 85.25 points. U.S Treasury yields rose as well, signaling investors believe a recovery is under way just ahead of today's GDP print

The Japanese economy managed its smallest decline in export figures in 14 months in November. The data shows that Japanese exports are still falling, but the year-on-year data for November showed the decline to be 6.2% which compared very favourably to the figure of 23% for October.

The majority of Global Equity Markets finished last week slightly ahead looking week over week. Friday did see a sell-off ahead of the weekend in both the first and second sessions with only the DJIA advancing just marginally to close at 10,328.

Last week was another fairly mixed affair for the major stock exchanges with no very dramatic movement in either direction. In Europe, the FTSE lost 1.2% of its value, closing at 5196.8; the CAC was unchanged over the previous week’s close, it lost one point to close at 3794.4; the Dax closed up by 1.3% at 5831.21.

Despite the Greek government unveiling plans to secure a 10% cut in public spending, a second ratings agency has decided to downgrade the country’s credit rating.

Inflation, as we all know, is when the price for a commodity rises. When the inflationary pressures in an economy become too strong, governments and central banks will intervene to get it under control

The FOMC meeting came and went without stirring the waters. In the Euro-zone and London, Equity Markets finished their sessions in positive territory ahead of the highly anticipated U.S FED rate decision.