Forex Fundamental Analysis

Germany’s Deutsche Bank and American regulatory authorities have come to a deal over a fine imposed on the bank for activities of its American branch related to the sub-prime scandal.

Monte dei Paschi is thought to be the world’s oldest surviving banking business. It was established in 1472; 20 years before Columbus discovered America, and remains the third largest bank in Italy.

Last week was the last full week of trading for 2016 and a positive affair for all of the major markets.

To a very large extent, the American people have opened Pandora’s Box in electing Donald Trump to power. He, more than most, is a politician who will tell an audience what they want to hear with little or no conviction on his part – the Mexican wall is probably the clearest example of this.

2016 was supposed to be the year of “business as usual”. It was an American presidential election year that saw the Republican Party in such disarray that it struggled to find a conventional front runner for its candidate that many analysts assumed that the Democrats would win easily.

Last week was a largely positive affair for the major markets with only the Nasdaq slipping.

Charles Dicken’s classic “Scrooge” is the tale of a curmudgeonly old soul of a miser who, eventually, sees the error of his ways and brings Christmas joy to his entourage with a little seasonal generosity; so the story doesn’t quite fit with the current Greek situation, but its close enough!

It has been highly likely, over the course of the year, that the Fed would increase its interest rate, but at each stage expectations were dampened and the decision deferred.

Inflation in the UK has continued to pick up, measured by both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Price Index (RPI) yardsticks.

Brexit means Brexit, as we all know, but the devil is in the detail.

Last week was saw all of the major markets trading higher. In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was up on last week’s close by 3.3%, it closed at 6954.2; the Dax ended at 11204, up by 6.6% on last week’s close; the CAC was up by 5.2% to end the session at 4764.1.

Japan has just demonstrated that initial data can be off. The initial reading on Japan’s Q3 GDP was that it came in at a relatively strong figure of 2.2%, however, revised data suggests that the world’s third largest economy grew at a much more subdued pace of 1.3%; quite a significant downwards revision.

The death of UK heavy industry was presided over by Mrs Thatcher in the late 1970s and early 80s. Mining, shipbuilding, mass manufacture of cars and steelmaking were all blue-collar preserves and therefore workers in these industries were largely Labour voters.

The origin of the Greek financial crisis can be traced back to creative bookkeeping activities which the government used to fudge the convergence criteria for joining the Euro from its inception.

If one thing emerges from 2016, it will probably be a resolve by politicians to curb their enthusiasm for referenda on complicated issues.