Forex Fundamental Analysis

Last week was mixed for the major markets with the majority trading lower. In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was down on last week’s close by 1.6%, it closed at 6730.7; the Dax ended at 10513, down by 1.7.2% on last week’s close; the CAC was down by 0.47% to end the session at 4528.8.

Finally, unemployment in the 19 nations which use the Euro has fallen to (marginally) less than one person in ten.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has agreed on a package of supply reduction which was outlined several months ago. The intention is to choke off supply and therefore bolster the oil price – so it’s good news for them and bleak news for consumers if the deal sticks.

The Federal Reserve had expected to push rates higher in 2016 following a rate hike from 0.25 to 0.5% in December of 2015 – the first in almost a decade.

The next European nation to play referendum roulette is Italy which goes to the polls next week.

Last week marked the final session from the perspective of these market summaries for the month of November 2016 and again, all of the major markets advanced.

In his Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond quoted estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility suggesting that borrowing over the next five years will come in at £122 billion.

In an age where some politicians will say anything to get power and then abandon the baggage even before the “ticker-tape” has stopped falling on their victory processions, it makes it difficult for the rest of us to discern fact from “post-truth”.

Any reasonably well informed person who has been following the UK’s flirtation with economic ruin, knows that once Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is triggered it starts a two year process where the EU and the UK attempt to disentangle their affairs.

Last week was another positive affair for all of the world’s major markets. In Europe over the course of the week, the FTSE was up on last week’s close by 0.67%, it closed at 6775.8; the Dax ended at 10665, up by 1% on last week’s close; the CAC was up by 0.34% to end the session at 4504.4.

No man is an island – as they say. One could be forgiven for thinking that Britain, although an island, fails to understand that the phrase applies just as much to a modern state as to a human being and that leading politicians believe that Brexit is a peculiarly and uniquely British affair.

The headline figure suggests that unemployment in the UK has fallen by 37000 during the three-month period to September, creating a fresh 11-year low.

There is a smug conviction in the UK amongst staunch Brexit supporters that the EU needs the UK more than it needs them and consequently, the EU will grant Britain whatever it wants to see the minimum perturbation to the trade relationship between the UK and the EU27.

Last week was a positive affair for all of the world’s major markets as investors try to get their head around a Republican administration to come in the US – even one led by Donald Trump.

In what on the face of it seems like an odd decision, the Indian authorities have withdrawn current 500 and 1000 rupee bank notes from circulation, literally overnight (Tuesday).