By: Alex Brandt
Highlights:
NZD/USD - Unemployment rises to 10 year high
AUD/USD - Retail sales worse then expected
Chinese banks loaned out 1.5T Yuan in January
Eurozone Economic News Today:
09:00 GMT: Halifax house prices for January expected +0.7% m/m, +3.6% y/y
11:00 GMT: German factory orders for December, expected +0.2% m/m, +9.6% y/y
12:00 GMT: Bank of England rate/QE decision.
12:45 GMT: ECB rate decision.
Extremely hard to see ECB doing anything more than sit on their hands given current situation in likes of Greece and Portugal.
A report from Bloomberg says that the US government will officially recognize that job losses from April 2008 to March 2009 increased by 825,000 above previous reports. Since this is data is not relevant to Friday's NFP, I think traders will more then likely brush this off and focus more on the NFP report.
The Asian session today was mostly quiet with volatility only appearing towards the start of the European session. The NZD/USD and AUD/USD both declined on weaker economic data, but the AUD/USD did get a slight boost with the report of strong home building approvals. Lots of bids between .8750/70 on AUD/USD but watch for heavy stops just below. Range: .8775/.8830. Talk of heavy buying interest from both China and the BIS on EUR/USD @ 1.3850, but as in the case of the AUD/USD, large stops are tipped below 1.3850. Range: 1.3868/1.3903.
Cable has been generally well bid today as traders anticipate the BoE initiating a pause in its bond buying program, report of a barrier option interest lined at 1.5850, I'd expect stops below. With that in mind might well expect to see some defense of said level. Range: 1.5862/1.5918. Traders generally see the BoE leaving the bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and not extending QE program (pause for time being). There’s probably more of a chance of a shock here than with the ECB.