OPEC cut the forecast for how much crude oil it will need to provide in 2015 to the lowest in 12 years amid surging U.S. shale supplies and reduced estimates for global consumption.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its projection for 2015 by about 300,000 barrels a day, to 28.9 million a day. That's about 1.15 million a day less than the group's 12 members pumped last month, and the 30-million barrel target they reaffirmed at a meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27. The impact of this year's 40 percent price collapse on supply and demand remains unclear, OPEC said.
"The fundamentals outlined in the report look quite bearish," Abhishek Deshpande, oil markets analyst at London-based Natixis SA, said by e-mail. "Fiscal balances are a huge problem for weaker OPEC members, so I won't be surprised if they call for an emergency meeting early next year."
Prices now are below what 10 out of OPEC's 12 members need for their annual budgets to break even, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kuwait and Qatar are the exceptions. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest member, has $742.4 billion of reserve assets, data from the country's monetary agency show. OPEC's next meeting is due to take place on June 5th.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded $1.11 a barrel lower at $65.70 a barrel as of 12:54 p.m. London time. It slumped as low as $65.29 a barrel yesterday, before rebounding. It hasn't been below $65 since September 2009.
Demand for OPEC's crude will slump to 28.92 million barrels a day next year, according to the report. That's below the 28.93 million required in 2009, and the lowest since the 27.05 million a day level needed in 2003, the group's data show.