The US Dollar had nursed recent losses during Asian trade on Wednesday before a sentiment shift. FX traders warily returned to higher risk currencies after the US President suggested he was willing to roll back some of the restrictions that had been put in place in an effort to stop the spread of the Coronavirus. The Dollar is also feeling the weight of the Federal Reserve Bank's recent effort to increase Dollar liquidity. In the short term, data is likely to continue to drive the Dollar; later today, FX traders will be watching for the release of US retail sales figures as well as industrial production numbers. Analysts expect to see a significant decline in both sets of month-over-month numbers with industrial production expected to fall to -4% in March, and retail sales likely to show a decline to -8.
As of 10:19 am in Tokyo, the EUR/USD was trading at $1.0984, a loss of 0.0373% and off the earlier low of $1.09763. The GBP/USD was also lower at $1.2612, down 0.0951%; the pair has ranged from a trough of $1.26099 to a high of $1.26333. The USD/JPY was trading at 107.0950 Yen, down 0.02% and off the session trough of 106.925 Yen.
May 1st Reopening Unlikely
While markets would clearly want to see some return to economic normalcy that a lifting of the restrictions would bring, economists point out that it is too soon to move away from safe haven currencies given that the health threat to the public at large has not been eliminated. While Mr. Trump has pushed for a May 1 reopening of the US economy, state governors, especially those in the Northeast which have seen the largest numbers of fatalities, have largely dismissed his pleas. Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is the President's top adviser on the Covid-19 pandemic, said he believes the May 1st timeline to be too optimistic.