- Stock markets closed mostly down yesterday, but the Asian session saw recoveries. The U.S. market indices remain firm, but the S&P 500 Index failed to close above its 61.8% Fibonacci peak-to-trough retracement yesterday. Many market analysts think the bottom of this bear market has already been reached, but other analysts see further strong falls likely in stocks over the coming weeks and months. There is a strong divergence of opinion, but we are seeing the bullish case strengthen.
- Gold and Silver are rising slowly again towards recent high prices, and higher prices still are more likely than not to happen over the rest of this week.
- The Japanese Yen is the weakest major currency, followed closely by the U.S. Dollar, while the Australian Dollar and the Euro are the strongest currencies.
- The price of crude oil has begun to rise a little further above $30 per barrel.
- For the first time, confirmed coronavirus deaths yesterday in South America exceeded that in the U.S.A. which suggests that the epicenter of the pandemic can now be said to be in South America, especially Brazil which saw over 1,000 deaths and 16,000 new confirmed cases Tuesday.
- The rate of increase globally in new confirmed coronavirus infections seems to be zero (new cases plateauing), while the number of daily new deaths seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave, although this may be at least partially due to the pandemic moving into South American countries which tend to have worse reporting systems. Total reported deaths globally peaked on April 18th and daily new confirmed cases on April 24th. Total confirmed new cases stand at more than 4.9 million with an average case fatality rate of 6.60%. Both the total number of new cases and deaths continues to slowly fall daily in the U.S.A. and in the U.K. A world recession or possibly even depression from the pandemic appears to be inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 34% drop in U.S. Q2 annualized GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted many analysts continue to see a much better outlook for U.S. unemployment. The WTO has forecasted that global trade is set to fall by one third. The U.S. now sees an unemployment rate of 15% and a drop in 1st Q GDP of 4.8%.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be increasing most quickly in Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and India. Russia now has the second highest number of confirmed cases globally, followed by Brazil and the U.K. While a strong majority of confirmed coronavirus cases are still in Europe and the U.S.A., with the U.S.A. accounting for approximately one third of all cases, infections are beginning to increase dramatically in South America, which is now accounting for more than one quarter of daily global deaths. The situation is especially bad in Brazil. The President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro, who compares coronavirus to the flu, has issued decrees trying to reopen the country which are being ignored by state governors.