- The price of crude oil rose strongly again yesterday, rising by more than 10% to reach a high price of $27 per barrel.
- Stock markets have begun the week firmly, with markets rising yesterday to recover Monday’s losses in the U.S. Stock markets have been surprisingly strong even as the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic increases. U.S. indices have regained more than half of their losses, which is technically significant as an inflection point. Many market analysts think the bottom of this bear market has already been reached, but other analysts see further strong falls likely in stocks over the coming weeks and months. There is a strong divergence of opinion.
- The rate of increase globally in new confirmed infections and deaths from the coronavirus pandemic seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave, although this may be at least partially due to the pandemic moving into South American countries which tend to have worse reporting systems. Total confirmed cases stand at more than 3.6 million with an average case fatality rate of 7.02%. The pandemic’s epicenter is still located in the U.S.A., but even there it seems as if the peak of this wave has probably already been reached, while this looks more certain also for every European nation. Current strong growth is in Latin America. A world recession or possibly even depression from the pandemic appears to be inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 34% drop in U.S. Q2 annualized GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted many analysts continue to see a much better outlook for U.S. unemployment. The WTO has forecasted that global trade is set to fall by one third.
- Data from New York City suggests that 0.23% of the entire population of the city has recently died while infected with the coronavirus, which is one of the strongest pieces of hard evidence that the disease has a significantly higher mortality rate than any common flu. Similar data from Bergamo, Italy suggests an estimate from between 0.20% to 0.50%, indicating that claims of coronavirus having a significantly lower IFR are unlikely to be accurate. With recent antibody tests suggesting 21% of the city has been infected, this suggests an infection fatality rate of 1%.
- There is increasing focus on of the economic cost of the pandemic, especially in the United States where the unemployment rate is currently estimated to have hit 15%. Some nations (mostly in Europe) have begun to relax restrictions, as have three U.S. states. Italy and Spain are finally beginning to begin to ease their lockdowns as data improves, while other countries easing include Germany, Poland, Norway, the Czech Republic, Albania, Italy, and Israel. It is becoming clear that the infected nations which have suffered least from this first wave are New Zealand (which is close to having eliminated the disease completely), Australia, Norway, Austria, and Israel.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be increasing fastest in Brazil, Turkey, Russia, India, and Singapore, and Japan.
- Although the U.K. seems to be past the peak of its deaths, it now has the highest confirmed death toll outside the U.S.A. for coronavirus and is still confirming a high level of new cases daily. The U.S. also continues to report relatively high daily numbers of new confirmed infections.
- While the vast majority of confirmed cases are still in Europe and the U.S.A., with the U.S.A. accounting for approximately one third of all cases, infections are beginning to increase dramatically in Latin America, especially in Brazil which is now confirming more than 6,000 new cases and 600 deaths daily. The President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro has been seen in public recently suffering from a dry cough, leading to speculation he is infected, as he continues to play down the disease as no worse than the flu.
- Currency markets are currently dominated by relative strength in the Japanese Yen and in the Australian Dollar, while the U.S. Dollar looks likely to be the weakest currency today.