- Stock markets are rising. The U.S. market indices remain firm and bullish, with the S&P 500 Index trading yesterday above the crucial 3000 level, its 200-day moving average, and also its 61.8% Fibonacci peak-to-trough retracement. Many market analysts think the bottom of this bear market has already been reached, but some analysts see further strong falls likely in stocks over the coming weeks and months. There is a strong divergence of opinion, but we are seeing the bullish case strengthen dramatically that the recent market crash is over.
- Crude Oil’s rise begins to falter as Russia hints at production cuts.
- In Forex, riskier currencies are generally strong, but the U.S. Dollar has been making a small comeback in recent hours. The Australian Dollar is the strongest major currency. There are no major economic data releases due today.
- Coronavirus deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean are now 37% of the global daily total, well exceeding those in both the U.S.A. (27%) and Europe (approx. 25%) which shows that the epicenter of the pandemic is now in South America. Brazil alone saw over 1,000 deaths and 11,000 new confirmed cases yesterday, making the highest daily death toll of any country for the first time.
- Daily reported deaths globally peaked on April 18th and daily new confirmed cases peaked just a few days ago on 22nd May. Total confirmed new cases stand at just below 5.6 million with an average case fatality rate of 6.27%. Both the total number of new cases and deaths continues to fall daily in the U.S.A. and almost everywhere in Europe outside Russia. Goldman Sachs forecast a 34% drop in U.S. Q2 annualized GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted many analysts continue to see a much better outlook for U.S. unemployment. The WTO has forecasted that global trade is set to fall by one third. The U.S. now sees an unemployment rate of 15% and a drop in 1st Q GDP of 4.8%. In recent days, more analysts have begun to forecast a faster economic recovery in the U.S. than had been expected.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be increasing most quickly in Brazil, India, Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Iran. Russia’s “curve” of new cases seems to be flattening. Brazil now has the second highest number of confirmed cases of any country, followed by Russia and then the U.K.