- There have been dramatic political developments in the U.S. as the results of two Georgia Senate races seem almost certain to produce Democrat control of the Senate. If confirmed, this will give the Democrats control of the White House and both Houses of Congress which could make a material impact by making it easier for Democrats to implement their policy program. Analysts expect that a higher level of economic stimulus is likely, as a start. Later in the day, supporters of President Trump successfully stormed Congress as it was certifying President-Elect Biden’s victory, with four dying in apparent confrontation with police and security forces. Security regained control and Congress resumed its session. We can expect even higher political tensions in the U.S. now and a backlash likely to result in further accusations of a politicized judicial process.
- The unprecedented scenes in the U.S. capitol produced a sudden fall in risky assets, but the market recovered quickly and stocks and other risky assets now look firm. The major stock indices the S&P 500, the Dow Jones 30, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 all hit new all-time high prices.
- Bitcoin has continued to recover strongly from its recent sharp selloff to break above $37,500 and trade at a new all-time high price. An FCA regulatory ban on crypto CFDs came into force yesterday, affecting brokers operating from the U.K. with FCA regulation.
- Most major currencies are in strong, long-term bullish trends against the U.S. Dollar. These trends are now reasserting themselves, with the Dollar weak although the Japanese Yen is the weakest major currency, while the Australian Dollar, the Euro, and WTI Crude Oil all looking relatively strong.
- WTI Crude Oil rose strongly yesterday again to hit another 6-month high price, after Saudi Arabia agreed a surprise output cut the day before yesterday, pushing the price above $50 per barrel.
- The ADP forecast for this Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report was considerably more positive than the market consensus, predicting a net gain of 60k jobs.
- The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday showed there had been unanimous backing for the current rate of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. This seemed to have no impact upon the markets.
- Yesterday saw a record high number of new confirmed coronavirus cases globally at 781,103, while the number of deaths hit its second-highest daily total recorded yet.
- Global coronavirus deaths have increased dramatically since early October to reach a level approximately 66% higher than the peak last April.
- Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 87.1 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.16%.
- The coronavirus vaccine drive has been criticized in the U.S. and E.U. for its relatively slow pace so far. It has been progressing fastest in Israel, which has already administered a first shot of the Pfizer vaccine to 17% of its entire population (including a majority of the over-60s), although the country will begin a hard lockdown Friday as the rate of infection increases dramatically. The U.A.E. ranks second, having now vaccinated more than 8% of its population.
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Barbados, Burkina Faso, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Cyprus, El Salvador, Ireland, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Malta, Nigeria, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, the U.S.A., the U.A.E., and the U.K.