- Risky assets are broadly lower and safe havens broadly higher as markets continue to be afraid but uncertain. It seems clear the next directional move will be determined by the severity of the impact of the omicron coronavirus variant, which has yet to be determined.
- The Turkish lira traded at an all-time low against the US dollar yesterday before falling back. The price is rising again now and it looks likely to rise higher still over the coming days. However, trading the USD/TRY currency pair can be very problematic for retail Forex traders as spreads and overnight fees are extremely high, while its high volatility can also cause problems.
- In the Forex market, short-term momentum is most strongly against the Australian dollar and most strongly in favor of the Canadian dollar, with the Loonie boosted slightly by a small recovery in the price of WTI Crude Oil. Markets are swinging up and down rather than moving in strong trends right now.
- The omicron coronavirus variant is still being researched and monitored, with morbidity remaining unclear. Although risk sentiment improved during the Asian session, markets remain prone to very strong risk-off movement if forthcoming news about the potency of the omicron variant is negative.
- The omicron variant is confirmed to be present in 24 countries including the USA, South Africa, the UK, Israel, the Netherlands, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Botswana, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Austria. There are confirmations of community spread. Several countries (most recently Japan) have either entirely closed their borders to non-citizens, while the US and the EU and other countries are imposing a ban on travel from South Africa and other African nations.
- Yesterday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast predicts that the US will have created a net new 534k jobs, very close to the 525K which had been the consensus forecast. The data seemed to have no real effect on the market.
- Last week saw the fifth consecutive global weekly rise in new confirmed coronavirus cases after two months in which cases fell steadily.
- It is estimated that 54.5% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
- Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 263.7 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.99
- The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Andorra, Belgium, Bolivia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Jordan, South Korea, Laos, Lebanon, Mali, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Poland, San Marino, Slovakia, Sweden, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, Trinidad.