- The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.0% year-on-year in June, down sharply from 3.3% in May and below the market estimate of 3.1%.
- This was the lowest inflation reading since June 2023.
- Energy prices rose at a much slower pace in June compared to May, although food inflation ticked higher.
On a monthly basis, the June CPI was also lower than expected with a decline of -0.1%, below the May reading of zero and the market estimate of 0.1%. This was the first monthly deflationary reading since May 2020.
Core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a better gauge of inflationary trends, wasn’t quite as flashy as the headline numbers, but it also eased in June and beat expectations. Annualized CPI nudged lower to 3.3% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in May and below the market estimate of 3.4%. Monthly, June’s core CPI dipped from 0.2% to 0.1%, below the market estimate of 0.2%.
For the Federal Reserve, the drop in June inflation is an encouraging sign as it looks to hit the rate cut button. Interest rates are at their highest level since 2001 and Fed policy makers have stressed that they need to see further evidence that inflation is sustainable at around 2%.
Will today’s impressive inflation reading satisfy the Fed? The markets appear to think so. The probability of a quarter-rate hike in September has jumped to 81%, compared to 69% just one day ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch. The strong rise in expectations for a rate cut has sent the US Dollar sharply lower against most the major currencies, as lower interest rates in the US would make the US Dollar less attractive for investors.
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US Dollar Pares Losses, Stock Markets Shrug
Today’s inflation report supports the case for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve and that has sent the US Dollar sharply lower against all of the major currencies except for the Canadian Dollar.
The US Dollar has managed to recover some of its losses against the other majors. The EUR/USD rose by as much as 0.70% after the inflation report but has recovered and is currently down by 0.46% at the time of writing. We are seeing the same trend with GBP/USD and AUD/USD currency pairs.
The USD/JPY deserves particular mention as it has posted massive losses today. USD/JPY fell by as much as 2.6% but has pared these losses and is currently 1.85% lower on the day. Today’s decline was the sharpest since late 2022 and traders are wary that the huge drop may reflect currency intervention by Tokyo and not only the soft US inflation report.
Somewhat surprisingly, major US stock indices have negative reactions to the inflation report. The Nasdaq 100 Index is down 211 points (1.00%) at 20,492 and the S&P 500 Index is down by 17 points (0.30%) at 5622. It may be that the deflationary CPI reading has spooked markets a bit who might see a stronger chance of impending recession.
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