Bitcoin rose firmly over the past day to trade at a new 4-month high price, partly due to hope that a Trump presidency will improve the cryptocurrency’s prospects.
- Bitcoin has risen quite strongly to break out to a new 4-month high price just below the key resistance level at $71,659. This will be attracting trend traders and momentum traders to the long side. Some analysts see the increasing prospect of a Trump presidency as giving a tailwind to Bitcoin as a Trump administration will likely be more friendly towards cryptocurrency than a Harris administration.
- Precious metals continue to look bullish, especially Gold, which is currently trading just a fraction below its recent all-time high price of $2,758. Trend traders will be interested in being long not only of Gold but also of Silver and Palladium, which have recently broken to long-term highs. Palladium futures are expensive but there is a Palladium ETF which is affordable.
- With just one week to go to the US Presidential Election on 5th November, polls suggest a narrow victory for former President Donal Trump is the likely outcome. However, almost all polls from the swing states are showing Trump and Harris so close that anything could happen, as the numbers are well within the margin of sampling error. Betting markets suggest Trump’s chance of victory is about 64%, while pollster 538 has Trump’s chance at 54%. The rolling average of polls by 538 is showing Trump narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania which would secure him victory assuming that he wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, where he is also ahead, but by no more than 2% in any of them.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar is the weakest major currency and the Japanese Yen the strongest since the Tokyo open, but the numbers are low enough to be almost meaningless. It can be said that the US Dollar could get some movement later today from the US data releases which are due.
- There will be two items of key US economic data that will be released today:
- CB Consumer Confidence
- JOLTS Job Openings
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