Final US Presidential Election opinion polling is suggesting a virtual tie between President Trump and Vice-President Harris, but betting markets have priced in a 58% chance of a Trump win.
- Voting finally concludes tonight in the US general election, which will elect a new President and determine control of both Houses of Congress. Polls are too close to call, although continuing Republican control of the Senate is all but guaranteed. However, betting markets present a more optimistic picture for Trump, suggesting the former President’s chance of victory sits at about 58%. In fact, Polymarket’s odds see Trump as likely to win all the swing states. Opinion polls suggest the content could come down to a razor-thin margin in just one state, Pennsylvania. There is surely a higher than usual chance for a disputed election outcome which could plunge the US into genuine uncertainty as to the winner, much as happened in the 2000 Bush vs Gore Presidential election which hinged on a few hundred votes in Florida.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate on hold at 4.35% as expected, but in its statement indicated concerns remain about inflation to the upside, despite recent weak economic data. The points toward poor growth in productivity.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since this week’s Tokyo open, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, putting the AUD/JPY currency cross in focus.
- Precious metals are rising weakly today, with Gold looking the most bullish.
- There is speculation that fighting may break out between Iran and Israel after polls close in the USA today, with Iran recently threatening a stronger attack against Israel. However, Israel is in a strong position after destroying most of Iran’s air defences in its previous attack more than a week ago. Israel is certainly capable of hurting Iran by much more than Iran can hurt Israel. Crude Oil prices are rising, but this is seen as mostly due to OPEC announcing the delay of an agreed-upon hike in output. Iran is delaying any attack as it is frightened to influence the US Presidential Election in favour of Donald Trump, who will likely be more supportive of Israel and more aggressive towards the Islamist regime in Iran. The outcome of this election will probably affect Iran and Israel’s calculations.
- There are two major high-impact data releases due today:
a) US ISM Services PMI
b) New Zealand Unemployment Rate
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