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Forex Today: Bitcoin's Bullish Breakout Flops

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

Bitcoin fell sharply off the record high it made yesterday above $109,000 after failing to make a record high close in New York, and is currently trading a shade above $101,000.

  1. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin made a strong bullish breakout to a new all-time high yesterday but then sold off immediately after President-Elect Trump was sworn into office. The drop was quite strong but the price action still looks bullish near support, so a rise to fresh highs over the coming days cannot be ruled out. Trump is seen as friendly to Bitcoin and crypto. If the price ends today above $106,500 that will signify a valid long-term bullish breakout and will attract trend and momentum traders on the long side. As well as spot Bitcoin, you can buy Bitcoin micro futures (1/10th of a Bitcoin in size), and of course CFDs on Bitcoin at many CFD brokers.
  2. Headlines were dominated yesterday by the swearing into office of President Trump. Markets were watching closely to see whether he would enact new tariffs on his first day in office. He did not do so, which has boosted Chinese equities today as there was concern over an immediate new China tariff. However, the President said he was considering imposing a new 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada in February, which boosted the US Dollar and knocked the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso somewhat, putting USD/CAD and USD/MXN into focus. The USD/CAD currency pair briefly traded at a new 4-year high a few hours ago
  3. The Trump and Melania memecoins released to coincide with yesterday's inauguration of President Trump are off their highs, especially Melania, but both have begin to rise again in the past few hours. $TRUMP may be an interesting meme coin to trade for crypto meme coin traders.
  4. Global stocks are mixed, after having mostly regained ground yesterday. The S&P 500 Index remains well above its closing price just before Trump won the election last November, at 5,783.
  5. The Japanese currency ambassador stated that Japan is closely watching Yen currency market positions because volatility is undesirable, in a typical warning to speculators. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its interest rate at its policy meeting next Friday, which will probably give the Yen a boost, calling into question the long-term bullish trend in the USD/JPY. The Bank will not want its monetary policy plans to be unraveled by having to deal with speculators moving the price in a direction they would consider to be adverse.
  6. In the Forex market, the Euro has been the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open while the Canadian Dollar has been the weakest. Trend traders will remain interested in being short of the EUR/USD currency pair although a daily close today above $1.0430 would invalidate that trend.
  7. Corn futures rose strongly last Friday to close at a new 1-year high price, which will attract trend and momentum traders on the long side. Buying commodities at a new 6-month high has historically been a very profitable trading strategy.
  8. There will be releases today of Canadian and New Zealand CPI (inflation) data. Canadian inflation is expected to show a very sharp month-on-month contraction of 0.7%, while New Zealand inflation is expected to show an increase of 0.5% over the past quarter.

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Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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