The consensus forecast on US inflation data which will be released today is that the annualized rate will remain unchanged at 2.9%.
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- The most important data release in the Forex market is due today: US CPI (inflation) data. Analysts are expecting a month-on-month rise of 0.3, down from the previous rise of 0.4%. This would leave the annualized rate unchanged at 2.9%. If the data surprises, it will like move the US Dollar and US stock markets.
- In his testimony to the Senate yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his recent policy stance, which is that the Fed is in "no rush" to hike rates and that the Labor market is "broadly balanced". This is suggestive of a steady policy which is seen as slightly hawkish, and may have helped knock stocks and boost the greenback a little bit.
- Following the imposition of a new 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum into the USA, the European Union is now readying retaliatory tariffs on US imports. The price of Aluminum futures fell yesterday for the second consecutive day.
- In the Forex market, the Swiss Franc is the strongest major currency, while the Japanese Yen is the weakest - generally, it is Yen crosses that are showing the most action in the market right now. The weak Japanese Yen is at least partly due to recent comments by Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan that Japan will conduct monetary policy "appropriately" to economic conditions, which was taken as a dovish tilt suggesting that a near-term rate hike may not be a forgone conclusion.
- Gold has sold off over the past day after reaching a high above $2,942. Trend traders will probably still be interested in being long of Gold now, and many analysts see a profit target at the next big round number of $3,000.
- Coffee sold off very strongly yesterday, after having risen by more than 16% in just three weeks and traded at a new all-time high price. Although Coffee futures can be expensive, retail traders and investors can gain exposure to Coffee via the COFF ETF, although US taxpayers should beware this is probably a PFIC for tax purposes.
- Fed Chair Powell will be testifying before the House of Representatives today on monetary policy.
- There will be a release of New Zealand Inflation Expectations data later today.
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