Fed member Bostic has expressed his contrary belief the Fed will cut rates only once in 2025, giving the greenback a small hawkish tilt and a bullish tailwind.
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- Bostic, one of the more generally hawkish members of the US Federal Reserve, has stated that he now expects only one more rate cut during 2025 to happen, due to the persistence and "bumpiness" of inflation, which he sees as remaining above the Fed's target rate of 2% until 2026. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, markets are expecting one rate cut of 0.25% soon and another one towards the end of 2025. Bostic's comments are probably giving the USD a tailwind, as it continues to rise for the third consecutive market day.
- Stock markets mostly made solid recoveries yesterday, especially in the USA, where many analysts think we have already seen the medium-term bottom. Although yesterday's rally seemed to run out of steam during today's Asian session, yesterday's close by the S&P 500 Index above its 200-day simple moving average is a bullish sign.
- Gold remains in focus after it continued to rise over into record blue-sky territory last week, trading at a new all-time high above $3,050 and threatening to reach even higher prices. However, the price has made a bearish retracement and is now about one day's average range off the high. Trend traders will probably still be bullish on Gold.
- Copper futures gained again yesterday to reach a new 10-month high price. There is plenty of demand for this industrial metal which is widely used in AI applications, so it could be a good trade or investment on the long side. Copper micro futures are relatively cheap, with a position size of about $10,000. For smaller amounts, retail investors can look for spot Copper CFDs or ETF (CPER) alternatives to participate.
- In the Forex market, since Tokyo opened today, the strongest major currency is the US Dollar, while the weakest is the Swiss Franc, although the numbers are so relatively small as to be effectively meaningless. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in focus, but that is because it has been reaching new multi-month highs and is close to a valid long-term bullish trend.
- The Indonesian Rupiah has reached its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. However, few brokers offer this currency for trading, so a bearish trend or any other movement is difficult to exploit. Futures are available at a higher size but at a minimum position of something like $100,000.
- PMI data in the USA, UK, Germany, and France was mixed,
- US President Trump has imposed sanctions on countries importing Venezuelan oil.
- It may be a relatively quiet day in markets as there are no high-impact data releases scheduled today.