Australian CPI shows a stronger than expected drop in its annualized rate, boosting the Aussie.
- Swiss CPI data released earlier today showed no change, exactly as was widely expected.
- The standout asset class is metals - both precious and industrial, with all falling yesterday, and all continuing to trade lower during today's Asian session. The 2025 rally was about precious metals, but industrial methods are coming into greater focus. Here is the picture metal by metal:
- Gold - peaked at $4,500 and is now trading below $4,450.
- Silver - it has fallen strongly and is now trading below $76.
- Platinum - peaked around $2,450 but now falling heavily like Silver.
- Palladium - peaked around $1,850 but now falling heavily like Silver.
- Copper - fell yesterday but is starting to stabilise today. CME micro futures in copper are available, sized at about $15,000. If that is too big for you, the CPER ETF could be an alternative, or your broker may offer a smaller spot contract.
- Aluminum - fell yesterday but is starting to stabilise today. Futures contracts are large in size, but the ALUM ETF could be an alternative, or your broker may offer a smaller spot contract.
- Trend traders will likely be long of Silver, Copper, and Aluminium already.
- Stock markets are taking a dip almost everywhere, but the S&P 500 Index just edged to a new all-time high price yesterday in early trading. Trend traders will likely be long of this index.
- President Trump called for a massive increase in defense spending, to an annual budget of $1.5 trillion, which would be a virtual doubling of defense spending. This may be contributing to risk-off jitters as the prospect of war involving the USA is countenanced, with Polymarket pricing in a 56% probability of a military clash between the USA and Iran by July 2026.
- In the Forex market, since today's Tokyo open, the strongest major currency has been the Australian Dollar, and the weakest has been the Australian Dollar. This puts the AUD/JPY currency cross in play as a risk on/risk off trade. The USD/JPY currency pair has been in a technical long-term trend for quite a while, but is continuing to consolidate below the ¥157 handle.
- The price of Crude Oil is continuing to fall after President Trump announced that Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude to the US government to sell at market price. It is trading below $56.25 and looking quite likely to test the multi-year low not far below its current price.
- Yesterday's US data releases listed below all came in more or less as generally expected.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- JOLTS Job Openings
- ISM Services PMI
- There will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data today.