Which Way Now for USD-JPY?

The Japanese Yen relation with the US Dollar has been the focus of currency markets for the last few months. The seemingly ever-stronger Yen prompted an intervention by the Bank of Japan. However, after the initial run up, the USD-JPY fell again, almost touching the all time low.

That most recent major price down swing took this pair from 85.95 to 80.23, which was followed by a correction to the mid part of this range. Currently, the USD-JPY is contracting even more in that general area, moving between 84.40 and 82.33. This is setting up a possibly more decisive price move, which could decide a longer-term market direction.

In general, the technical picture of the daily price chart is neutral, slightly favoring a bullish turn around. The USD-JPY managed to climb above resistance of the Ichimoku kumo (cloud) and stay above it. At the moment, the price is right at the 100 SMA, around 84.00 level. During the latest rally, the RSI indicator did not become oversold, leaving room for more advance. However, most important are the 84.40 resistance and the 82.33 support, which should be watched carefully.