EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.4158
Very Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook: The market did not fall yesterday, but the price pattern remains quite bearish on the hourly chart. As I write this EUR is dropping to new lows below 1.4150 and all hourly oscillators are pointing down. Still, some minor divergences also exist, so the bearish case is not guaranteed for today. But as long as the prices stay below 1.4225, the picture is bearish and suggests weakness towards 1.4045/1.4000 and eventually much lower.
On the upside, firm break above 1.4220/25 negates, signals a temp. Low is in place and gains towards 1.4350 will be favored....
Strategy: The hypothetical short position from 1.4220 was stopped out at 1.4260 with 40 pts loss. Shorts favorable again at 1.4175. Stop=1.4225. Target=1.4025.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD: 1.6269
Very Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook: The price pattern remains bearish and weakness towards 1.6200/1.6180 is seen today. However, due to its strength against EUR, GBP is unlikely to fall a lot against the U.S. dollar and the 1.6160 chart support will likely hold today and yield rebound tomorrow.
On the upside, firm move above 1.6315 negates risks recovery towards 1.6380/1.6400....
Strategy: Shorts favorable at 1.6280. Stop=1.6320. Target=1.6180
USD/JPY
USDJPY: 77.13
Very Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook: The price action remains choppy, but as long as the prices stay below the declining 100-hour moving average, our focus is on the downside. Firm move below 76.90 will indicate the next leg lower is under way and weakness towards 75.00 will be expected...
On the upside, only a move above 77.50 negates, but only above 78.00 will turn the hourly chart somewhat bullish.
Strategy: Holding short from 77.21 is favorable. Stop=77.51. Target=75.21