By: Doug Rosen
It still might be a little too early to tell but I am beginning to suspect that this pair just may be continuing back up again. Last week price broke out of its trap to the down side and the past couple weeks have been bearish indeed, however, while looking at the weekly chart price has fibbed to the zone between the 38.2 and 50.0 fib levels.
In addition to this the 233 ema was in fact right smack in the center of those two levels adding to the confluence of it alland price seems to be on itw way back up again. I do see a lot of fight along the way since the weekly 55 and 5 ema's are in the way and for sure there will be traders out there entering shorts at those levels. Moving over to the daily chart we have just touched the 38.2 level of the recent drop and have touched the 13 ema, however, the 5 ema is below price trying to force it back up. This fight between support and resistance could very well cause consolidation and put us into a range bound market for a few days but I was noticing signs of price moving up on the lower time frame charts.
Firstly, I do want to note that recently we were at the lowest possible monthly pivot levels and now we are just above the monthly S2. We are also above the weekly Central Pivot as of today and we start off our session today above the daily Central Pivot Point. This is all very bullish pivot action. On the 4 hour chart price has begun to ride the 5 ema and we have broken out of a price channel that is visible on the 4 hour, 1 hour and 15 minute charts. The upper Bollinger Band on the 4 hour is pointing up. On the 1 hour the 21 ema has been in control with the 13 ema backing it up and trying to pass the torch over to the 5 ema. I also want to add that the hourly 13 and 5 ema's overlap with the weekly central pivot point. On the 15 minute chart price has moved above the ema's but the Bollinger Bands are narrow at this moment so we need to hope the upper band will open. Friday is always a take profit day and I find the market behaves erratically but my overall bias for this day is bullish.
