By: Doug Rosen
As always, I begin my analysis with this pair examining the EUR/CHF and I start out with he weekly chart. We are still just below the descending trend line I have been speaking about everyday this week.
I truly believe this trend line will break soon, the weekly 5 ema needs to catch up with price first but when this happens I believe the force of the 5 ema will push it through the line. What does concern me a bit is the stochastics and the fact that we are at a 78.6 fib overlapped with a 55 ema and this may very well be the reason we have not yet broke that line.
Looking at the daily I can see we have been in a tight range but still above the 5 ema and already within the intersection of the two trend lines. The 4 hour chart shows we still in consolidation phase but we riding above the ema's.
The 1 hour is basically the same. Looking at the GBP/CHF I see the opposite. On the weekly chart price was forced down from the trend line and also the 55 ema and the Bollinger probably played a role as well. The stochastic just adds to the confluence of it all.
On the daily chart it looks as though the 5 and 13 ema's are laying heavy on price which is sitting on the ascending trend line which is acting as support That I believe could soon be broken. On some of he lower time frame charts it appears that the trend line has already been broken.
On the 4 hour price is slightly below the 21 and 55 ema's but they are so close together because there really has not been a lot of volatility from the 4 hour perspective. On the 1 hour we are looking bearish. All in all, it does appear the GBP is weaker than the EUR and I have not even looked at the EUR/GBP chart just yet.
Now I am looking at the EUR/GBP daily chart and what I see only confirms what the EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF has already told me. This week we broke a trend line then came back to the retest and touched the daily 5 ema and now we heading up. Looking at the 4 hour we are up against last month's high but it looks as though it may be broken.
On the hourly we looking bullish since price is above the ema's and the 5 is beginning to rise and could soon be crossing the other ema's. So, based on what I have seen so far, the EUR seems to be the stronger currency.