By: Doug Rosen
Normally, my analysis for the EUR/GBP entails analysis of the EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF. Today however, I don't see it necessary to even look at those two pairs. The reason for that is today, both pairs looks very similar and are behaving in the same sort of way.
As I have said in past analysis for the EUR/GBP I look at the EUR/CHF and the GBP/CHF to gauge strength of the EUR vs. GBP using the CHF a baseline. If I see that the EUR is stronger than the CHF but the GBP is weaker than the CHF, then I know without a doubt that the EUR is stronger than the GBP and therefore I analyze the EUR/GBP with a bullish bias.
Today however, the EUR/CHF and the GBP/CHF both appear to be bullish. With that being said, the EUR/GBP is on an even playing ground and what we need to do is just play off of Support and Resistance on this pair.
On the weekly chart price has recently broke out of a price trap with the ema's just underneath. The ema's are all bunched together which shows nothing much has happened in the last several weeks. Price is above support and therefore should be expected to rise.
On the daily chart, same conditions do apply. On the 4 hour chart the 5 ema has crossed below the 13 and 21 ema's but now price is bouncing off a 144 ema overlapped with a trend line.
Moving over to the hourly chart price is riding below the ema's and has just broken below the weekly central pivot point. I expect price to retrace back up to the 13 ema at around 0.8725 then to continue t head back down.
On the 15 minute chart I see that price has double bottomed off yesterdays low and the stochastic is in the oversold zone crossing up so I expect to see price head back up to around 0.8740 which is where the daily central pivot is located and that would also be a 38.2 fib overlapped with he 233 ema. So for now, watch for a retest to the daily central pivot point then for bearish continuation.