By: Doug Rosen
Well, yesterday I did point out that this pair needed a retracement to the 5 ema on the daily chart to continue downward and it looks as though that was exactly what took place. Price did make it's way back up to the daily 5 ema, touched it then has continues to drop. At the time I am writing this analysis, price is still relatively close to the daily 5 ema, and I expect price to continue on its way to the downside. Yesterday's move brought price up to nearly a precise 38.2 fib of the recent move down, overlapped with a 4 hour 21 and also overlapped with last month's low. As I have said in previous writings, price is non-linear, it does not travel in a straight line. It can still hang around at the level it is at for a bit before continuing back down.
Looking at the hourly chart it is obvious to me that the 21 ema has been in control of price action and on the 15 minute the 55 ema has also maintained control so this tells me that price is slowing down a bit to the upside and should finally roll back over and continue it's move to the downside. A trip back up to yesterday's high before continuation downward is not unrealistic, so, expect price to head back up just a bit, possible up to around 1.3368 before it continues back down.
