By: Doug Rosen
I will begin my analysis today on this pair starting with the daily chart. As we have been observing this pair has been retracing to the upside for the last few weeks and has nearly reached the 61.8 fib level which just happens to overlap with the daily 233 and 144 ema's. This is a very bearish zone and sell orders and profit taking should occur at this level due to all the resistance in the way but at the same time this pair still has a very bullish ring to it. Price has been riding the 5 ema to the upside and the upper Bollinger band is still open and pointing up. Stochastic is in the overbought zone but seems to want to stay in that zone and that in itself is very bullish.
Moving on to the 4 hour chart which also happens to be my monthly pivot point chart, it is obvious to me that price is up against the R3 pivot point. This area can be very strong resistance but when broken is usually the sign of a breakout. Price is riding up the ema's and occasionally pierces the 13 then bounces off the 21 ema. We seem to be in a range at this time and the stochastic is in the overbought zone.
Moving on to the hourly chart also the weekly pivot chart price is hovering just above last week's high. Price still appears to be in an uptrend but has stalled out a bit in consolidation and the ema's are braiding.
Finally, I move over to the 15 minute chart also the daily pivot chart and price is just below the M3 at 1.3933 and price does not seem very volatile at this time. The ema's are clumped together a sigh of a lack of volatility and we seem to be stuck in a range. USD appears to be weak as of lately so I expect to be bullish but at the same time we have much resistance to deal with so we will watch this pair carefully. Resistance exists at 1.3935 and 1.3961 which is yesterdays high as well as the R1. Watch for bounces or breaks at these levels.