By: Doug Rosen
I will begin EUR/USD pair today with the weekly chart. Yesterday this pair broke the price channel it had been confined in and what a sweet break it was, I sure hope many of you made pips on that move. I can tell you it's not over yet.
On the weekly timeframe price is still inside an apex nearing the nose area and is approaching the lower support line of this apex so for you breakout traders out there, keep an eye on this pair and on my reports to stay up to date on what will soon happen since we are talking the weekly timeframe now and a breakout on a weekly timeframe is a breakout you will not want to miss.
Of course, I will expect a bounce before the breakout since the lower support line also overlaps with the 78.6 reverse fib at 1.3382 of the previous swing up so I would expect some type of bounce up at that level which should give us all a bunch of pips. Meanwhile, I expect this pair to continue to fall until it reaches that level.
On the daily timeframe price maintains its bearish appearance, the lower Bollinger band is wide open and pointing down and the 5 ema has crossed below the other ema's and is following price down as well.
Looking at the 4 hour timeframe price is riding the 5 ema to the downside and on the hourly chart price is also riding the 5 ema down, however, the hourly 5 seems to be rolling over a bit and the 13 ema is catching up and so is the 21 ema but I think this will just lead to some brief consolidation until the 5 ema on the higher timeframes catches up with price and pushes it down even further.
On the 15 minute timeframe price action already has begun to consolidate. Price is heading down to the next monthly pivot level, the M2 at 1.3501 which may hold some weight and offer a retracement since that is a psychological level as well. The monthly S2 will be approached sooner since it is at 1.3525 which happens to also be yesterdays low so expect some fight in that zone before price continues further down.