By: Doug Rosen
As I begin my analysis for the EUR/USD today I begin with the daily timeframe and the first thing I notice is that price is riding the 5 ema downside. So far the three previous candles have not even pierced the 5 ema and the angle and separation between the 5 and 13 ema's is quite strong meaning fast and strong downward pressure for this pair from a daily perspective.
One thing that cannot be ignored is that price has been hovering on visual weekly support at the 1.3400 area. A break below that level could initiate a nice downtrend for this pair.
On the 4 hour timeframe I can see that price has made what appears to be an upside down flag pattern, price had a big fall then has consolidated a bit making lower highs but higher lows confining price into an apex and a break below the bottom of the apex will confirm a down day for the EUR/USD.
The 4 hour 21 ema is still drifting down and each time price touches the 21 ema it seems to be rejected and price is below the monthly M2 pivot and the 21 ema is just above that heading downward. I expect this confluence to add to downward pressure for the EUR/USD.
On the 1 hour timeframe price appears to be within an apex but in the center. I prefer catching price when it is at the top or the bottom so that I can narrow my anticipation to either a bounce or a break, however, price is below the 55 ema and seems to keep being rejected each time it makes contact with it.
Price today has been hovering on last week's low at 1.3482 and the daily central pivot is at 1.3472 so a break below the 1.3470 level could help send price downside today.
Meanwhile, on the 15 minute timeframe price is below the 233 ema and just touched it and was rejected and it seems that each time the 233 pushes price down so I don't expect price to break above it today. I don't expect this pair to go anywhere else but down for today.